In spite of the Fed’s rate increases and a slowly deteriorating economy, commercial real estate (CRE) transactions are still happening. But in a few cases, we’re seeing and hearing about transactions that seemed on track for closing just three or four months ago that are starting to fall apart.
Investing in commercial real estate (CRE) can be a sound strategy for diversifying a personal asset portfolio. CRE yields and growth can be more predictable than those offered in the equity and bond markets, for example, where trying to time buying and selling opportunities can seem more like wagering than investing.
It’s easier to invest in CRE than many investors think. Sure, commercial office buildings are valued in the tens of millions of dollars – but informed investors can have a stake in a property of that size by participating in a CRE investment syndication. In these arrangements, their money is pooled with that of other investors, making each person a part-owner in the property with nearly all the tax advantages and opportunities for returns as the major CRE investors enjoy.
For the most part, Metro Denver commercial real estate owners and investors have the luxury of waiting out a short-term economic downturn since markets here have been, and will likely remain, relatively strong compared to many areas of the U.S.
Rising Federal Reserve interest rates haven’t significantly impacted commercial real estate deals and markets yet. We have every reason to believe that even if the Fed continues its attempts to slow the economy, markets here will only decelerate, not necessarily decline.
The rate of commercial real estate (CRE) price increases we saw in 2020 and 2021, especially in industrial properties, clearly has slowed at this time. But a CRE owner-occupant can still lock in and realize recent increases in their property’s value (without disrupting their operations at that site/facility) through a sale-leaseback transaction.
Recent actions by the Federal Reserve Board appear to be on their way to having the intended effect – an economic slowdown, especially in the commercial real estate (CRE) market. The Fed’s Board of Governors has raised the federal funds policy rate by 225 basis points since the first of the year to 2.5% and that rate may reach 3.5% or higher by year end.
Let’s look at some of the national CRE implications of these rate increases before we zero in on what really matters – the Metro Denver market.
Slowdown in Commercial Construction and Transactions
Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and, therefore, CRE construction project costs. These increases are coming on top of the higher costs already factored in over the past two years related to labor shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, and the cost of building supplies in general.
Is the U.S. in a recession? Whether the correct answer ultimately proves to be “yes,” “no,” or “not yet,” it’s an academic issue that’s not keeping us up at night.
There’s no doubt, though, we’re entering a period of economic slowdown in the commercial real estate market caused by:
720.837.9407
Denver, CO
